What Is the Poly-Sim Score?
The Poly-Sim Score (PSS) is a free, real-time attractiveness rating for every active market on Polymarket. It combines four structural factors — potential return, market uncertainty, timing quality, and trading activity — into a single number so you can instantly identify which bets offer the best structural conditions right now. A higher score does not guarantee a win; it means the conditions are aligned for an informed entry.
The PSS Formula: GR × H × T × A
The score is calculated as: PSS = GR(p) × H(p) × T(d) × A(v), where each factor captures a different dimension of market quality.
GR(p) — Gross Return. Measures how much you get back relative to your stake if the bet resolves correctly. A market priced at 20¢ returns 5× your money; one priced at 70¢ returns only 1.43×. PSS uses a square-root dampened version (1/√p) rather than the raw 1/p formula, which prevents extremely cheap markets from dominating purely because of their payout size.
H(p) — Uncertainty (Shannon Entropy). Measures how genuinely undecided the market is. A perfect 50/50 market scores maximum here. If the crowd is already 90% confident in the outcome, this factor collapses — there is little analytical edge remaining regardless of payout. Markets priced below 5¢ or above 95¢ are excluded entirely because entropy is too low to be meaningful.
T(d) — Timing Quality. Scores highest when 5–10 days remain before the market closes. Entering too early means too much can change before resolution; entering in the final hours leaves no time to react to new information. The timing curve uses a sigmoid-exponential model that peaks in the 5–10 day window and decays gracefully in both directions.
A(v) — Activity Level. Ranks this market by its 24-hour trading volume relative to all other active markets. High-activity markets have sharper, more trustworthy prices because real capital is continuously defending them. Low-activity markets receive a small penalty (minimum 0.60× weight) but are never excluded outright — thin markets can still offer genuine edge.
How to Read the Scores
Scores below 0.35× signal structurally weak conditions — the market is either priced near certainty, closing immediately, or has negligible volume. 0.35–0.65× is reasonable but not compelling. 0.65–0.90× is good structural quality. 0.90–1.15× represents strong edge conditions. 1.15–1.40× is prime territory, and anything at or above 1.40× is a top pick where all four factors are simultaneously elevated.
Use the Score ↓ sort to surface the highest-rated markets, or use the filter chips to focus on a specific category. The search bar accepts partial market titles.
Kelly Criterion Sizing
Once you identify a high-PSS market, use the Kelly Criterion to determine your position size. The formula is f* = (b·p − q) / b, where b is the decimal odds minus 1, p is your estimated probability of winning, and q = 1 − p. The PSS score reflects structural quality, not your personal probability estimate — you still need to form your own view on the likely outcome before sizing a bet. See the full bankroll management guide for recommended fractional Kelly sizing (typically 25–50% of full Kelly to reduce variance).
Risky Play Warning
Markets priced below 12¢ are flagged with a ⚡ Risky Play banner. At very low prices, the GR return amplifier can inflate the PSS significantly even when the crowd has strong consensus against the outcome. For these markets, the structural play is a momentum trade — enter small (1–2% of bankroll), set an early exit target around a 40% price rise, and never hold to resolution. The crowd is usually right on low-probability events.
Data Source & Refresh Rate
Market data is fetched from the Polymarket Edge Markets endpoint, which provides pre-scored, live market data. The page auto-refreshes every 5 minutes to keep odds current. If the primary worker endpoint is unavailable, the page falls back to the Polymarket Gamma API directly — so data is always available. All scoring happens client-side in your browser; no personal data is stored or sent anywhere.
Frequently Asked Questions
Does a high PSS mean I will win? No. The PSS measures structural conditions, not outcome probability. A high score means return potential, uncertainty, timing, and activity are all aligned — it does not predict the market resolution. Always combine the PSS with your own research.
Why does the list shuffle? By default markets are shown in random order to prevent anchoring bias. Users who always look at the top of a sorted list tend to over-trade the same few markets. Use Score ↓ sort if you want the ranking view.
How is this different from the Whale Analytics page? The Whale Analytics page shows aggregate patterns from large traders (≥$1,000 bets) — bet size distribution, YES/NO bias, hourly activity, and wallet intelligence. The Poly-Sim Score focuses on individual market quality at the current moment. Together they give you both the macro context (where smart money is concentrated) and the micro view (which specific bets have the best structural conditions).
Is Polymarket legal in my country? Polymarket is available globally except the United States. US traders can use Kalshi or other regulated alternatives. See the disclaimer for full details.