Reading the Bitcoin Probability Ladder
The ladder above shows every active Bitcoin prediction market on Polymarket, ranked by crowd YES probability. Each row is a binary question — "Will BTC close above $90,000 by June 30?" — and the crowd's collective answer, expressed as a probability, is the best available market consensus estimate.
What the crowd % actually means
A 35% market means the crowd assigns a 1-in-3 chance of the outcome resolving YES. This is not a price target — it's a probability. When your independent research suggests the true probability is 50%, the market is mispriced by 15 percentage points, creating a meaningful edge on a binary outcome.
Three types of BTC trades
- Direction trade: Buy YES when the crowd underprices a price target your model says is achievable.
- Fade trade: Sell YES (buy NO) when crowd conviction is too high for the underlying setup.
- Term structure trade: Near-term and long-dated markets price the same outcome differently. Buy cheap near-term, sell rich long-term when the curve is inverted.
How to use the timeframe tabs
The ≤30d tab shows near-term conviction — markets resolving within a month. The 91d+ tab shows long-dated expectations. Comparing them reveals whether the crowd's long-term view is consistent with its short-term view. Divergences often represent genuine inefficiencies worth exploring.
Volume as a confidence signal
Markets with higher 24h volume are harder to move and reflect more informed participants. A 65% probability backed by $500K volume is a much stronger signal than the same 65% on a $2K market. Always weight your analysis by volume before sizing a position.
Related tools
Use the Daily Mispriced Bets page to find all Polymarket categories where the AI model disagrees with the crowd by the largest margin. Use the BTC 5-Min Algo to trade the short-term Polymarket 5-minute BTC up/down markets with live order book data and 60+ strategy simulations.