Price Target Probabilities
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Probability Timeline
Crowd YES% across all active BTC price targets, sorted by price level
Market Sentiment
— bullish markets
— bearish markets
"Bullish" = market prices YES > 50% chance of hitting the target. "Bearish" = crowd rates it below 50%.
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All Bitcoin Markets
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Frequently Asked Questions
How accurate are Polymarket Bitcoin probabilities?
Polymarket aggregates real-money trades from thousands of participants — making its prices some of the most calibrated probability estimates available. Academic research consistently finds prediction markets outperform expert forecasts, especially on measurable, near-term outcomes.
What does the crowd probability actually mean?
The YES% shown for each market is the current last-traded price, which represents the crowd's collective estimate of the probability that Bitcoin will reach that price target by the resolution date. A price of 0.32 means the crowd thinks there's a 32% chance it happens.
Can I trade these markets directly?
Yes — every market shown here is live and tradeable on Polymarket. You need a crypto wallet and USDC on Polygon. Click "Trade ↗" on any row to go directly to that market.
Why do some markets have very low probability?
Markets with very low YES% (under 10%) represent aggressive price targets — e.g. BTC hitting $500k in 2025 — where the crowd thinks it's highly unlikely. These are often long-dated markets with a small but non-zero probability baked in.